“Maybe we underestimate the number of injuries.

This could mean that the number of newly infected people will not increase explosively, in part due to the measures announced by the Cabinet on July 9. Van Zelst: “But even before a significant loosening occurred on June 26, the R number was already well above 1. So it’s really questionable whether the tightening will bring the R number back below one.” So if the number stays above 1, you should see a clearer increase.

40 kilometers of travel

Another possibility of relative stagnation: There aren’t enough tests being processed right now. According to van Zelst, there are indications of this: “When you take samples to schedule a test, you see that sometimes people can only go after a day and 40 kilometers away. Test streets are overcrowded.”

GGD says that since infections started to rise again, there has never been a moment when someone in their environment could not be tested in 24 hours, according to a spokesperson: “For example, you may not be able to get tested at your home in a preferred location in Amsterdam, And in some areas you have to travel a little further, but we haven’t seen a capacity issue.” According to GGD, the average time between test and appointment is 16 hours. Between July 5 and 11, a total of 376,000 tests were performed. This week, not counting Saturday and Sunday, there are already 370,000, so the number of tests will be exceeded from the previous week.

But is this enough? The rate of positive tests ranges between 14 and 15 percent. The WHO scale is 10 percent maximum. Moreover, there is a good chance that you will miss the infection because you are not testing enough suspected cases. Van Zelst: “If people have to travel far and have to wait a long time for results, there is a risk that they will not be tested.”