Countries are still far from reaching an agreement on tackling climate change at the Dubai climate summit. The negotiators did not reach beyond the “bag of desires.”
VN-klimaatchef Simon Stiell wond er woensdag geen doekjes om toen hij de pers te woord stond: “Over een week moet deze top een hogesnelheidstrein afleveren om klimaatactie te versnellen. Momenteel hebben we een oude boemeltrein op een gammel spoor.”
Het begon nog zo mooi voor de klimaattop: al op de eerste dag lag er een overeenkomst voor het oprichten van een klimaatschadefonds. Het regende meteen aankondigingen over financiering van klimaatplannen. Die teller staat inmiddels in de tientallen miljarden.
Maar dat schadefonds voorkomt de klimaatverandering niet. En met de miljardeninvesteringen is ook een belangrijke vraag nog niet beantwoord: hóe willen we de klimaatverandering wereldwijd aanpakken?
Het antwoord op die vraag kan volgen uit de zogeheten global stocktake. Dat wijst naar het Parijsakkoord: voor het eerst sinds het sluiten van de deal in 2015 maken landen dit jaar de balans op: zijn die doelen nog in zicht?
Dat is niet het geval, dus de vervolgvraag is: hoe gaan we er dan wel voor zorgen dat de opwarming beperkt blijft tot 1,5 graden?
Het antwoord moet komen te staan in een tekst waar alle landen het over eens zijn. Maar dat is nog ver weg. Dinsdag verscheen een document waarin allerlei opties staan voor de uiteindelijke tekst, maar waarin consensus ver te zoeken is.
Jeroen Kraan is klimaatverslaggever
Phasing out fossil fuels
The hot topic is specifically the section that deals with concrete measures against climate change, for example a rapid transition to renewable energy. More than 120 countries have so far backed a proposal to triple the global amount of green energy between now and 2030.
But oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia do not support this proposal, because they still make good money selling fossil fuels. Large emerging economies such as China and India, which still want to build many new coal-fired power plants, have not signed the agreement at this time. It is therefore unclear whether it will remain a non-binding agreement between some countries, or whether it could become part of global climate agreements.
Even more controversial is the proposal to phase out fossil energy. Different variants of this are included in the conceptual document. But there is always the option of completely omitting references to fossil fuels from the final text.
In discussions about barren Steele said there was now nothing more than “a big bag of wishes, with a lot of swagger.” To reach an ambitious outcome, all governments must give their negotiators “clear orders,” says the head of the UN climate agency.
A difficult task for ministers
It appears that these orders were not issued on Wednesday. The technical part of the negotiations ended without issuing a new version of the draft text, while it was expected to be issued. The “portfolio document” issued on Tuesday remains unchanged, and will be referred to the political part of the negotiations, which begin on Friday.
This means a difficult task for the ministers of the 200 countries present. They must reach an agreement while the ambition gap remains huge.
Until now, negotiations have been conducted almost in public, under the watchful eye of environmental and other interest groups. As a result, countries’ positions are known, but it is diplomatically difficult to change course. “I think discussions should now be held behind closed doors to make decisions,” says Avantika Goswami of the Indian Research Center for Science and Environment.
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Hoekstra: As little carbon dioxide storage as possible
European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stressed on Wednesday that the Dubai climate summit should mark “the beginning of the end for fossil fuels.” He also sees no benefit in having broad exemptions for emissions-reduction technologies, such as capturing carbon dioxide emissions for underground storage. It is believed that this is only an option for sectors where there is no real alternative.
So-called carbon dioxide capture and storage technology is seen as a potential way out by countries that export a lot of gas and coal. They can continue to sell these fuels for use in power plants, while reducing emissions from these fuels.
Scientists and environmental organizations warn against such an outcome. They point out that CO2 storage is only used on a very small scale around the world and is technologically complex. Moreover, they are expensive and it is not at all possible to capture all emissions from coal or gas power plants. Hoekstra also believes that “countries cannot manage their way out of this problem.”
“Negotiations go into the night”
At the same time, there remains a great deal of anger among developing countries about the lack of funding for their climate plans. This has been the case for years, but this year Europe and the United States want to celebrate achieving the international goal of raising $100 billion in climate finance.
Developing countries point out that this is three years too late and that more efforts are needed to ensure their ability to transition to clean energy and protect themselves from the consequences of climate change. They want more clarity on this matter.
Thursday is a rest day at the climate summit. Negotiators then have five days to reach a conclusion, although there is usually room for “lost time” at such summits. “The second week is always more difficult,” says Stinte van Veldhoven, a former D66 politician and European director at the World Resources Institute, a think tank. He added, “Negotiations will now become a night job.”
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