In het kort:
- Mensen stemden op de PVV vanwege ontevredenheid over migratie en politiek.
- Ook willen kiezers dat migranten zich aanpassen aan Nederland.
- De PVV kan nog veel meer kiezers trekken.
- Er is geen bewijs dat veel moslims op de PVV hebben gestemd.
- Praktisch opgeleiden stemden relatief meer op de PVV.
Nearly a quarter of people who went to the polls on November 22 voted for the Freedom Party. The group can be divided into loyal and new voters, but they are not very different from each other.
They generally give the same explanations for their votes. The Freedom Party’s positions on immigration and asylum are mentioned most often. “The Freedom Party ensures that the Netherlands becomes for the Dutch again” and “The Freedom Party dares to tell the truth” are the answers that researchers see most often.
This group also sees the Freedom Party as a party that can bring about change. Voters are protesting the policies of recent years.
Wilders cheers after the first opinion poll with a huge victory for the PVV party
The Freedom Party can attract more voters
Research shows that PVV has the potential to become much larger. Previous research has shown that far-right parties (in Europe) attract many voters, especially with their tougher stances on immigration.
Potential voters want less immigration, distrust politics, and want immigrants to adapt to the country’s culture. The latter is also called cultural assimilation. This is inconsistent with a multicultural society.
If you look at all eligible voters in the Netherlands, including people who did not vote, you will see the above three points in a third. Only 40% of this group voted for the Freedom Party. Hence, the party can grow much more.
There is no evidence that there are many Freedom Party voters among Muslims
What else do we know about Freedom Party voters? Shortly after the elections, the impression was created that many Muslims were going to vote for the party. Early this month, political scientists came to the conclusion that this is not true. The National Voter Survey now confirms this as well.
120 people who identify as Muslim participated in the representative survey. Only two of them voted for the Freedom Party. The proportion of Freedom Party voters among people with immigrant backgrounds is also low. Voters with a Turkish or Moroccan background, for example, almost never voted for the Freedom Party.
This is different for Dutch people with a Surinamese or Indonesian background, for example. Among these groups, the proportion of Freedom Party voters is similar to the national average.
The research also shows that people with practical education (up to intermediate vocational education) voted relatively more for the Freedom Party. Many voters consider themselves part of the working class. Previous studies have also shown this.
The PVV also attracts strategic votes
Geert Wilders’ party made a late final run in November. Only in the final weekend before the election did it become clear that the Freedom Party might emerge as the winner. In addition to loyal supporters, voters switched from the FVD and JA21 as well, as expected.
The research also shows that people who voted for BBB or 50PLUS in 2021 have switched to the PVV party. But this also applies to one in five who voted for the VVD, SP or PvdD this year. Moreover, Wilders succeeded in getting many people to the polls who stayed home in 2021.
Among the voters who joined at the last minute, some also strategically voted for the Party for Freedom. They wanted to prevent the VVD from becoming the largest, but they did not particularly like the fact that the GL-PvdA – with party leader Frans Timmermans – won.
Het onderzoek:
Stichting Kiezersonderzoek Nederland onderzoekt sinds 1971 het stemgedrag rond Tweede Kamerverkiezingen.
Voor en na de verkiezingen wordt mensen gevraagd op wie ze stemmen en wat hun beweegredenen zijn. De respondenten krijgen een open vraag, zodat ze in hun eigen woorden antwoord kunnen geven.
De ondervraagden worden verzameld door datapanels I&O en LISS. Dat doen ze op basis van een representatieve steekproef van statistiekbureau CBS.
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