House of Representatives seat poll: The Freedom Party loses seats during the long period of formation

In the latest seat poll conducted by Ipsos I&O for EenVandaag before the May break (conducted April 26-29 in the Ipsos panel), we saw two seat shifts, the largest with PVV. Geert Wilders' party, which gained a record 49 seats in the last two months, loses 4 this month, bringing it to a virtual 45 seats. Despite this loss, the Freedom Party's 45 seats still far exceed the 37 seats it won in the House of Representatives elections.

The BBB increases by two seats this month, bringing Caroline van der Plas's party to 8 seats. Since the House of Representatives elections last November, the party's seats have ranged between 6 and 8 seats.

Seats overview: The PVV remains the largest party with 45 seats, followed by GroenLinks-PvdA (23) and the VVD (20). D66 and NSC each have 11 seats, while the BBB – as mentioned – has 8 seats. CDA and Party for the Animals each have 5 seats; SP, DENK, FvD and SGP have 4 seats. ChristenUnie 3, Volt 2 and JA21 achieved 1.

Seat distribution – last two polls

Confidence in a successful formation is decreasing, even among Freedom Party voters

The long-term formation seems to be playing tricks on the PVV party. Currently, three in ten Dutch people (30%) still have confidence that the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will succeed in forming a government together, compared to almost half of the Dutch (46%) in January. Confidence in reaching a successful outcome is also declining among the Dutch who voted for the Freedom Party in the House of Representatives elections. In January, seven out of ten Freedom Party voters (73%) expressed (very) high confidence in forming a government between these four parties. After three months, the percentage decreased to 44 percent. We see almost the same for the Dutch, who consider the Freedom Party to be their current favorite party (January: 71%; April 44%).

The Party for Freedom, the Freedom Party for Democracy, the National Security Council and the BBB have now been discussing a possible coalition for five months. In addition to low confidence in the success of this government, six out of ten Dutch people (59%) believe that this potential government will not complete its four-year term. A majority of VVD and NSC voters (65% and 60% respectively) also expect that this potential government will not last four years.

Our numbers are also published by EenVandaag in De Peiling.
For more findings from our additional research, contact us on X (formerly Twitter) to follow.

Accountability and Disclaimer

The Ipsos I&O Seats Poll for EenVandaag was conducted in the Ipsos panel. Since January this year, Ipsos Holland and I&O Research have become one company. At the moment, there are still two seat polls: one conducted in the Ipsos Panel, and one conducted in the I&O Research Panel.

Until the European Parliament elections, EenVandaag will continue to publish the Ipsos I&O polls, which are conducted in the Ipsos Committee. Ipsos I&O will continue to poll the seats.

Sampling and accuracy
This I&O Seat poll is based on online research among a representative sample of 1,011 Dutch voters. Data were collected from Friday 26 April to Monday 29 April 2024. Because the seats we publish are based on samples, the associated statistical margins must be taken into account. In the samples used in each survey, these margins average +/- 1% for small parties and +/- 2.5% for larger parties.