“The US election has suddenly become very interesting.”

Polls for the US presidential election show clear shifts since Kamala Harris was officially named the Democratic Party's nominee. Foreign commentator Bernard Hamelburg currently estimates that Trump's chances of winning are higher, “but you can see that things are getting closer together.”

Although polls show a very different picture from day to day, according to Hamelburg, the trend now seems clear. “Polls look at the groups,” she says. “You see an evolution in how black voters view the black candidate.” Black voters often turn away from elections in droves because they feel neither candidate is doing what they need. “But the euphoria of the past few weeks has somehow reached that group.”

It’s a significant development for the final election results, because it will also mean that a larger portion of that group will be heading to the polls in early November. “The electorate in America has never been more active, so if you get to 50 or 60 percent, you’re pretty much at a record high,” he said. That’s mainly the case with minorities, who often don’t see the point in voting. That makes a bit of a difference.

polarization moment

On the other hand, blacks make up only about 12 percent of the U.S. population, while Latinos make up about 17 percent. Together, that’s just under a third of voters, with the rest largely white. “And they’re not doing well there,” Hamelburg says. “They’re up a little bit for that group, but Trump is up a lot.”

“This is, of course, a very polarizing moment,” the foreign commentator continues. “And the fact that the new duo is entering the arena at the last minute makes the attack from the other side very fierce and difficult.” As one of the main reasons white voters have swung toward Trump, he cites the sense among that group that they have become increasingly disenfranchised over the years. “They say, ‘We are the majority of the country, and one president after another cares only about the disadvantages of minorities and extra help in schools. And us?’

credibility

So the most important group of voters feels left behind, and that’s where Kamala Harris’s most important task lies. Hamelberg currently estimates that Trump has a better chance of winning, “but you can see it getting closer together.” In swing states where the differences are small, things like higher black voter turnout could be the deciding factor. “The question is whether the average white voter, who normally doesn’t vote, is now more mobilized. That’s suddenly a very interesting development.”

Hamelburg believes the credibility with which both candidates present themselves will be important in the coming weeks. Harris scores slightly better on that front. “The way she comes across is a little more open and positive.” On the other hand, she is on a traditional, unsurprising Democratic platform of more justice, better education, affordable health care and better opportunities for minorities. “Those are important issues, but I don’t see a very significant vision yet,” Hamelburg says. “It would be helpful if she could come up with something that would be truly revolutionary for the country.”

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