Economic outlook is bleak: ‘Optimism is complicated’

About the episode

A state of uncertainty prevails in financial markets. Therefore, the impact of wars, conflicts and polarization should not be underestimated, according to Professor Arnaud Bout. In fact, positive expectations are undermined. “It’s hard to be really optimistic after this week.”

Although Bout has hope and confidence in eventually overcoming all the (economic) challenges that now surround him, he has great doubts about the leadership and the policy on which this leadership is based. He says: “What should we actually do at this moment?” “I see an incredible number of dilemmas.”

One of those dilemmas lies in the US economy. Last week, International Monetary Fund figures showed that the economy there is doing relatively strong, and that there is also upward pressure on interest rates. This means that the US central bank – the Federal Reserve – does not have to actually act: the markets do it themselves.

absence of security

However, there is still uncertainty about the Fed’s next decision, and whether interest rates will rise or not. “The economy is in pretty good shape, so there are shortages,” Bott continues. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not want to predict what will be decided in two weeks during his speech. While he still says very useful things.

Consumer uncertainty also plays an important role, because it means the Fed prefers to act more cautiously than more aggressively. “They want to radiate predictability with a certain meaning, and that is now also a factor.”