“Meloni is the only European government leader rewarded by voters.”

Last updated:

09:36

Giorgia Meloni's face was strongly associated with this European election campaign. By drawing the European list herself, without intending to obtain a seat in the European Parliament as well, she asked Italians to speak clearly about her system. She has been in power for nearly two years. Italian voters made it clear that they certainly support her government's right-wing policies. Important side note: With a turnout of just under 50%, enthusiasm for this election was very tepid.

Meloni became prime minister in October 2022, after winning elections a month earlier with 26% of the vote for her far-right Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) party, which has roots in neo-fascism. That result was her goal on Sunday evening: she wanted to do better then so she could talk about a real victory.

Clearly, that mission was a success. With almost all the votes counted, the Fratelli d'Italia party received 28.8%. “Almost two years ago, we had a beautiful night,” Prime Minister Meloni said in her victory speech. “Tonight is more beautiful for me.”

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Meloni leaves behind her two partners in the Italian coalition government, the far-right Lega party led by Matteo Salvini, and the right-wing liberal Forza Italia party led by Antonio Tajani. The Forza Italia party led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (9.7%) scored slightly better than the Lega party led by Salvini (9.1%). Five years ago, Salvini was a revelation in the European elections, polling 34 percent. His party has been losing ever since. It is conceivable that Salvini will not remain head of the League for much longer, and may also be replaced in the Italian government, although Meloni does not appear to have much interest in a quick reshuffle of her cabinet at the moment. Salvini holds the position of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Infrastructure.

“Giorgia Meloni is undoubtedly achieving important political success, both on a personal level and for her party,” says Franco Pavoncello, professor of political science and president of John Cabot University in Rome. “Not only is she achieving excellent results in Italy, but she is also significantly strengthening her position at the European level. In these European elections, Meloni is the only head of government who is rewarded by the voter.”

Achieving stability and calm

Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone. The leaders of the first and second economies took a hit on Sunday evening. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz had to painfully conclude that he had been outmaneuvered by the far-right Alternative for Germany party. In France, President Emmanuel Macron suffered a heavy electoral defeat by the National Rally party led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Their loss makes Meloni's election victory and especially her political gains in Europe greater. “Its influence in Europe was never as great as it is today,” Pavoncello says.

The question arises as to what Giorgia Meloni plans to do with this political windfall. Her Fratelli d'Italia party is now part of the European Group of Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). It may be tempted to form a large “super faction” of the European Council for Constitutional Reform and (parts of) the far-right Identity and Democracy faction. Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally party is a member of the National Identity Party, was already rooting for Meloni before these elections.

There are advantages to having such a large group, in terms of speaking time, financial resources, and influence in the European Parliament. But the risks seem to outweigh that: for the past year and a half, Meloni has wanted to project herself in Europe as a stateswoman who brought stability and calm to Italy and closely followed European and NATO policy on Ukraine. She contacted the President of the German Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (European People's Party), and the two women became friends Close. Pavoncello believes that “Meloni will not marginalize herself now by forming such a large faction to the right of the EPP.”

Meloni wants Italian influence in Europe. It can make much better use of this influence by remaining close to von der Leyen, and by securing an important portfolio for Italy in the new European Commission (eg economic affairs). The Italian Prime Minister also wants to continue using her influence in Europe, especially regarding Europe's increasingly strict immigration policy.

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Also a beautiful victory for the center left

While the far-right in Europe is making progress, voters in Italy confirm their confidence in the far-right prime minister. But Italy is a divided country. The Social Democratic Party, led by Elie Schlein, came in second place with 24%. Schlein, who was a member of the European Parliament, thus confirms her leadership and emerges from these European elections as a very strong Italian opposition leader. “We are clearly the alternative” to Georgia's Meloni government, a beaming Schlein said Sunday night into Monday.

Analyst Franco Pavoncello also concludes “an impressive performance by the center-left Italian opposition leader” and predicts that “both Meloni and Schlein are politicians who will continue to dominate the political scene in Italy for some time.”

This piece was updated Monday morning.

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