The content and simple phrases in the first debate between Biden and Trump do not matter

Since the 1960s, it has been customary for presidential candidates to debate each other after the summer, when they are formally crowned at their party's conventions.

To the surprise of many, it was Biden who recently, in a dramatic video, offered two specific dates and locations. Trump immediately agreed. This Thursday, for the first time, a sitting president and a former president will debate in front of tens of millions of television viewers. On Biden’s terms: on CNN, with no studio audience and with the microphone turned off while the other person speaks.

After the Super Bowl, the annual apotheosis of American football, presidential debates have become recurring events that attract most American viewers. When Trump faced off against Hillary Clinton for the first time in 2016, the showdown attracted 84 million live viewers — not including people who rewatched it or watched a recap.

It seems unlikely that a repeat of the confrontation between Trump and Biden so early in the campaign will arouse the same curiosity, but the impact of this discussion could be enormous. Especially if one of them confirms the impression that, given his age, he no longer has it all together.

Theater and sports

Presidential debates are always a combination of theater and sports. Who presents himself best? Who registers? Who wins? Political discussions and political ambitions are not important. Memorable one-liners are few and far between. The possibility of a fundamental surprise between Biden and Trump appears to be non-existent. Voters know their positions on immigration, abortion, and taxes. In fact, they lived under both presidents. It's about an image that will stick.

Political debates and political ambitions do not matter much in presidential debates.

Debates were legendary lost to Richard Nixon, who sweated against JFK, and George H. W. Bush, who ostentatiously looked at his watch in a debate with Bill Clinton. Trump breathing down Hillary Clinton's neck like a bull was iconic in 2016. Four years later, the consensus was that Biden had won a bruising debate against Trump, who was then a president who only talked about Biden. “Shut up, man,” Biden shouted at him at one point, gesturing with his beak.

There's more at stake for Biden this time. The sitting defending president usually has a tough time in the first debate, especially against an unpredictable opponent. Biden must be at least as sharp and energetic as he was in 2020 — and not stutter or confuse world leaders. On the other hand, as was the case with the annual State of the Union address in March, expectations of it are so low among a portion of the population that it does not seem difficult to surpass them.

To some extent, this also applies to Trump. His voters have a high tolerance for his aggression and his arguments are often incoherent, rarely finishing a sentence. But for those who haven't been following all the press moments surrounding his criminal trial in New York and his campaign rallies, it may be surprising how much Trump has aged, too.

Revealing this is the desire in the Biden camp, where it is said that there is “voter amnesia” and that if people see and listen to Trump any longer, they will be reminded of how terrible a president he is. He has now been convicted. The debates seem to attract undecided voters and people who don't follow politics closely.

The harm of discussion

I have already begun to cover the potential harms of the discussion for both parties. Hillary Clinton wrote an op-ed on Monday New York times To defend themselves again and stand with Biden. “It is a waste of time trying to refute Trump’s arguments, as in a normal debate.”

On the Republican side, there is astonishment at how quickly Trump agreed to all of Biden's conditions. In particular, the fact that neither the cheering audience nor the alleged victims of Biden's immigration policy will be allowed in the studio in Atlanta will affect the atmosphere of the discussion. Republican Frank Fahrenkopf, chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates, described Trump's failure to negotiate the matter as “political negligence.” The Fahrenkopf Commission was sidelined as an organizer of presidential debates for the first time since 1987.

In recent days at Camp David, Biden has been role-playing with staff imitating Trump and practicing his slogans about democracy, abortion and the economy. Trump pretends he doesn't need debate practice and limits himself to “political discussions” with advisers. After years of calling Biden a senile lunatic, he now calls him a “worthy debater.” Trump also maneuvered once again to play the victim, due to conditions that he himself had accepted uncritically.

In any case, they have to consider in their preparations how their words and body language can then be broken down into short videos that can go viral. Not the Chinese influence on TikTok or created using artificial intelligence Deep fake I've identified the campaign images so far, but the so-called Cheap fakes: Real video images that have been intentionally slowed down or selectively cropped without complex editing. Perhaps it will soon not be an event from the debate itself that will be decisive, but rather the manipulated version of it.

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