When – and how – can an epidemic become endemic?

Tampa, Florida. – Vaccines are expected to put the world on the right track to get back to normal again and push COVID-19 into the background, but many people want to know exactly when the pandemic will end.

Some epidemiologists said the COVID-19 epidemic could become a pandemic early next year, while others said it will likely take longer because the rest of the world needs vaccines.

Dr. said. Cindy Prins, assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida.

Right now, COVID-19 is still infecting a large group of people, so it almost fades into the background. But in the past, epidemics developed into epidemics.

“We’ve had flu epidemics, right? We’ve had swine flu that I think a lot of people remember since 2009. And we still get that kind of flu sometimes, and it’s part of the vaccine now anyway.” . “So people are still getting infected, but we’re not seeing the kind of increased cases that we initially saw in 2009.”

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Infectious disease scientists study virus models for COVID-19. Doctor. Edwin Michael of USF Health is a virologist who shares when COVID is behind us.

“It’s going to start waning and it’s going to be gone like early next year,” Michael said. “Maybe we’ll see the back of this in February next year.” “At worst, it will turn into a pandemic like the flu. You know, we will just have to deal with it, but it will be in the background. Most people are protected, but that means we have to reintroduce it, get vaccinations.”

Michael said the February pandemic is only possible if more people are vaccinated to reduce the spread of delta variants, put public health guidelines in place, and not have a worse viral mutation.

“And then you get outbreaks, you know, but you don’t have a global pandemic because the rest of us are immune to these things,” Michael said.

Because new variables may prolong the pandemic, Prins said she believes it may take longer to bring COVID-19 into the pandemic in February.

Part of the problem now is that even in the United States we still have a large population that has not been vaccinated. But if you go outside of the US and especially to some of the more backward countries, they can’t get vaccinated.” “They have large segments of their population that are not vaccinated, so this is a global effort.”

Prince and Michael said they believe COVID-19 will persist, but it will be like the flu or measles and mumps where enough people are vaccinated to build immunity.